Signs Point to Short-term Pullback

September 29, 2011 under World News

On Friday, investors bid farewell to one of the strongest Octobers on record, with stocks advancing three.4%. But instead of celebrating, investors focused on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve governors and Tuesday’s election, and stocks traded in a narrow range for the entire session.

Strong earnings had been reported by a number of the big caps, but the marketplace ignored them and better-than-expected GDP results, as well. In Q3, the economy grew at a slightly faster pace than in Q2, but according to economists, it is not growing fast enough to have a positive impact on the high unemployment numbers.

Both Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) exceeded earnings expectations. Mr. Softee turned in a creditable performance, up 1.5%, but Merck fell 1.7%. Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) missed their earnings target and the stock fell two.2%, and in spite of better earnings, 3M Business (NYSE: MMM) fell 1%.

The U.S. dollar lost 0.2% versus a basket of currencies. Treasurys had been powerful on Friday, as investors bet that the Fed would buy more government bonds this week in order to support a lagging economy. The benchmark 10-year note was up 0.375%, pushing the yield down to two.616%, and the 30-year bond’s yield fell to three.997%.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 5 points to 11,118, the S&P 500 fell a point to 1,183, and the Nasdaq was unchanged at two,507. The NYSE traded just more than 1 billion shares with advancers more than decliners by 1.5-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 585 million shares with advancers ahead by 1.25-to-1.

For the week, the Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.18%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%.

On Friday, crude oil for December delivery fell 75 cents to $81.43 a barrel due to the modest growth inside the third quarter. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) closed at $59.24, up 4 cents. December gold rose $15.10 to $1,257.60 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) was up two.7 points to 204.three.

What the Markets Are Saying

As noted in Friday’s Daily Marketplace Outlook, falling momentum, which has now had an impact on all of the major indices, is telling us that the marketplace has exhausted itself and will likely move to a modest consolidation. Our other internal indicators flashed short-term sell signals earlier inside the week.

For the S&P 500, the pullback will most likely be contained within the 1,130 to 1,150 zone of support. For the Dow, the numbers look like 10,700 to 10,900. And the Nasdaq could drop to two,320 to two,425 with the first support line at two,450.

As for sentiment, Investors Intelligence (II) noted that the advisers are becoming increasingly neutral, so that doesn’t add much to the picture. But the AAII sentiment survey strengthened the case for a short-term pullback with its readings very powerful on the buy side. As our readers know, this is not good for the bulls since this index, along with the II survey, is a contra-indicator, meaning high bullish readings are bad for the marketplace and high bearish readings are good for the marketplace. Last week, AAII bullish numbers jumped to 51.2%, up 1.6% from the prior week. This is the highest bullish reading since May 8, 2008.

Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reviewed some current thoughts on the price of gold with an article The World Does Not Need to End. It reported that the manager of the $330 million pension fund for the Texas Teacher Retirement System predicts that gold will hit $10,000 an ounce. Shayne McGuire says his fund is up 25% since its inception last year.

According to McGuire, $10,000 gold is possible if enough other pension funds and big investors jump-start buying and move as little as 1% of total global stocks and bonds holdings into the metal. Such a migration into gold would equal enough demand to push prices up tenfold from their current level.

The Journal went on to say, Of course, the same argument would be true for nearly every other investment class. Mr. McGuire has confidence in his argument, however, because he believes inflation will return, which typically pushes gold prices greater.

From a technical standpoint, there is no way to predict a run in gold to $10,000 an ounce. The Daily Marketplace Outlook began recommending gold more than two years ago and has regularly included gold investments within the Trade of the Day section. The largest ETF that mirrors gold’s daily moves trades is the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD). We’ve provided recommendations on a number of gold mining stocks. For the most part, they’ve done well and the charts suggest that they will go greater. But $10,000 an ounce? That reminds me too much of other bubbles when outlandish targets had been thrown to a voracious public.

I’d remain long gold and gold equivalents, but as with every other investment, there is a time to buy and a time to sell. And the time to sell is when everyone has bought.

For one gold ETF that is still headed greater, see the Trade of the Day.

Today’s Trading Landscape

Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Acorda Therapeutics, Administaff, Advanced Energy, Alberto-Culver, Alere, Allergan, Anadigics, Atlas Air Worldwide, Baker Hughes, Calgon Carbon, CLECO Corp., CNA Economic, Cognizant Technology, Cooper Tire, Corning, Drew Industries, Endo Pharmaceuticals, Everest Re, Haemonetics, Humana, IntercontinentalExchange, Interline Brands, IPG Photonics, JinkoSolar Holding, K-Sea Transportation, Loews Corp., Mercury General, Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Old National Bancorp, Pactiv Corp., Senior Housing, Simon Properties, Tasty Baking, Weingarten Realty, and Wilmington Trust.

Earnings to be reported following the close include: Altra Holdings, American Monetary, Anadarko Petroleum, AXIS Capital, Brigham Exploration, Brookdale Senior Living, Carmike Cinemas, Cognex, Comstock, Concurrent, Corporate Executive Board, Cutera, Deltek, DepoMed, Douglas Dynamics, Ducommun, DXP Enterprises, Evergreen Solar, Extreme Networks, Fabrinet, Forest Oil, Franklin Electric, Guidance Software, Harleysville Group, Herbalife, Hutchinson, Interactive Intelligence, Intevac, Kaman, kforce.com, Kindred Healthcare, Leapfrog, LHC Group, Meadowbrook Insurance, MEMC Electronic, Mindspeed, Mortons Restaurant Group, Nutrisystem, Parexel, Parkway Properties, Penson Worldwide, Petrohawk Energy, Post Properties, Principal Economic, PS Business Parks, Regal-Beloit, Rogers Corp., Rudolph Technologies, Sanmina-SCI, Skilled Healthcare, Stereotaxis, Summer Infant, Sykes Enterprises, Terremark Worldwide, Texas Roadhouse, TNS, Vulcan Materials, Winn-Dixie Stores and WMS Industries.

Economic reports due: Personal income and outlays (the consensus expects 0.3% for personal income and 0.4% for consumer spending), ISM manufacturing index (the consensus expects 54.5), and construction spending (the consensus expects -0.5%).

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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What’s A lot more Important Than the Election?

September 28, 2011 under World News

Stocks opened greater on Monday, and within 30 minutes the Dow was up 1%. But that was the high of the day, with sellers dominating the marketplace until just before the close.

The selling was no doubt due to uncertainty regarding the midterm elections, a greater U.S. dollar, and the Fed policy on QE2. But income and spending data had been disappointing, with September personal income slipping 0.1% and spending up only 0.2%. The ISM, however, said that the U.S. economy continued to grow in October. Its purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.9 from 54.4 in September.

The FOMC is expected to announce a plan on Wednesday to stimulate the economy. But last week, murmurings from Fed sources seemed to indicate that the amount of stimulus will be much less than first anticipated. And the ISM report offers little encouragement for the Fed to move to a more aggressive policy.

Technology stocks rose yesterday following a Semiconductor Industry Association announcement that global chip sales rose two.9% in September. On the news, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) rose two.6%, and Hewlett-Packard Organization (NYSE: HPQ) gained 1.1%.

Energy stocks did well following an earnings surprise from Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI). The business reported Q3 earnings of 54 cents versus an estimate of 47 cents, and the stock jumped 4.2%.

The yield on the 10-year note rose to two.63%, up three basis points. The greenback rose on the greater manufacturing data.? In late-afternoon trading, the euro was at $1.3885, down from $1.3919 on Friday.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6 points to 11,125, the S&P 500 gained a point at 1,184, and the Nasdaq fell three points to two,505. The NYSE traded 959 million shares with advancers just slightly ahead of decliners. The Nasdaq crossed 526 million shares with decliners ahead by 1.7-to-1.

Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.52 to $82.95 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) gained 7 cents and closed at $59.31. December gold fell $7 to $1,350.60 an ounce following the upbeat U.S. economic data and a stronger dollar. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) closed at 204.86, up 0.56 points.

What the Markets Are Saying

Both the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq came within a fraction of making a greater intraday high yesterday, before succumbing to sellers. And the Nasdaq, with a slightly lower close, registered a reversal down, though such small differences may have little consequence.

With the election virtually certain, it is fair to say that the marketplace has a Republican victory built into it. But what of the Fed’s pending decision to inject more capital into the markets? And, even more important, how much more capital? Last week, the Fed’s hints of a lower-than-expected purchase of T-bonds left the markets unsettled. And the tomblike silence this week is not helping either.

However, with the markets now at close to April’s highs, we have to expect a slight penetration of the highs and a rush of some buyers to jump onboard. But then a sharp pullback and consolidation could bring the markets in line and erase the overbought internal and sentiment numbers that have kept us on edge for the last two weeks.?

In addition to the elections and the Fed’s maneuverings, the monthly jobs numbers will be released before the opening on Friday. There is certainly enough news to create either a breakout or a breakdown. The ball is now within the bull’s court, and as the saying goes, It’s their game to win or lose.?

For one mining stock that looks ready to climb greater, see the Trade of the Day.

Today’s Trading Landscape

Earnings to be reported before the opening include: American Superconductor, AmerisourceBergen, Arch Chemicals, Archer-Daniels, Art Technology, Assisted Living Concepts, Bill Barrett, BioScrip, BP, Bridgepoint Education, Cabela’s, Cameron, CareFusion, Cedar Fair, Checkpoint Systems, Clorox, CommVault Systems, Corinthian Colleges, Dice Holdings, DigitalGlobe, DineEquity, Dollar Thrifty, EMCOR Group, Emergency Medical Services, Emerson, EW Scripps, Expeditors International, Fresh Del Monte, Fushi Copperweld, G&K Services, Gaylord Entertainment, Genesee & Wyoming, Glatfelter Co, Harman, HCP, Headwaters, Heidrick & Struggles, Impax Labs, Kaydon, Kellogg, Magellan Midstream, Marathon Oil, Martin Marietta, MasterCard, MCG Capital, Medco Health Solutions, MEDNAX, Melco Crown Entertainment, Monotype Imaging, Newmont Mining, NICOR, NPS Pharmaceuticals, Nu Skin, NYSE Euronext, Och-Ziff Capital, Overseas Shipholding, Perrigo, Pfizer, Radian Group, Ritchie Bros, Rowan Companies, RTI International Metals, Spirit AeroSystems, St. Joe Firm, State Auto Monetary, Steven Madden, Talisman Energy, Tenet Healthcare, Teva Pharmaceutical, Trex, Universal American Corp., Venoco, Vishay, Vornado Realty Trust, W&T Offshore and West Pharmaceutical.

Earnings to be reported right after the close include: Actuate, American Capital, American Reprographics, Argonaut Group, AsiaInfo, Asset Acceptance Capital, BGC Partners, Big 5 Sports, Bio-Rad Labs, Black Box, Blackbaud, BRE Properties, BTU International, CAI International, Cardtronics, Career Education, CBL & Assoc, Chiquita Brands, Comfort Systems USA, ComScore, Ctrip.com, DCT Industrial Trust, Denny’s, Discovery, Douglas Emmett, Drugstore.com, Electronic Arts, EOG Resources, Exactech, Excel Maritime Carriers, Exco Resources, FEI, First Economic, Glu Mobile, Hartford Monetary, Hertz Global, Hypercom, Innophos Holdings, ISTA Pharmaceuticals, Jack Henry, Lance, Leap Wireless, Lincoln National, MAKO Surgical, Masimo, Montpelier Re, Mueller Water, Myriad Genetics, Nanometrics, National Interstate, North American Energy, ONEOK, ONEOK Partners, OpenTable, Ormat Technologies, Orthovita, PC Connection, Peet’s Coffee, Pericom Semiconductor, Pitney Bowes, Plantronics, Primerica, RehabCare, Rentrak, Roadrunner Transportation, SM Energy, Sonus Networks, SRA International, STEC Inc., SuccessFactors, Synchronoss Technologies, Syniverse Holdings, Trimble Navigation, Triumph Group, Union Drilling, Unum Group, USEC, Watts Industries, Web.com, World Fuel Services, Wynn Resorts, XL Capital and ZipRealty.

Economic reports due: motor vehicle sales (the consensus expects 8.8 million), ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales and Redbook.

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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Bulls Seem a Bit Commitment Phobic

September 26, 2011 under World News

Stocks traded greater again yesterday in response to a lower U.S. dollar and powerful euro zone PMI manufacturing numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58% to its highest close since April 26.

The Dow’s charge greater was led by The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD), which rose two.61%. American Express Firm (NYSE: AXP) gained two.24%, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) gained 1.82%, and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) rose 1.2%. Gains had been attributed to the election, powerful quarterly earnings, and the approaching decision regarding the extent of a new stimulus plan by the Fed.

There was little within the way of economic reports to spur the marketplace along, but a string of solid earnings reports helped steer the marketplace greater. Dow member Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) posted better-than-expected earnings, but the stock fell slightly. And Art Technology Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARTG) jumped 45% following an announcement that Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) had agreed to pay about $1 billion for the organization.

But Archer Daniels Midland Business (NYSE: ADM) fell 6.6% right after fiscal Q1 earnings failed to meet expectations. The Clorox Business (NYSE: CLX) was off 4.2% soon after missing its fiscal Q1 target, and Energizer Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ENR) fell 9.5% following the business reported that fiscal Q4 profit more than doubled, but sales had been lower and the outlook for the next period looked lower.

The U.S. dollar traded lower following a surprising hike in rates by Australia. The euro rose to $1.4036 from $1.3888 on Monday. And the 10-year Treasury note was up taking its yield down to two.594%.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 64 points to 11,189, the S&P 500 gained 9 points at 1,194, and the Nasdaq was up 29 points at two,534. Only 913 million shares traded on the NYSE, but advancers had been ahead of decliners by almost 3-to-1. On the Nasdaq, advancers had been ahead by two.7-to-1 on volume of 539 million shares.

Crude oil for delivery in December was up 95 cents to $83.90 a barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) closed at $59.96, up 65 cents. December gold closed at $1,369.10 an ounce, up 20 cents, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) rose 1.45 points to 206.31.

What the Markets Are Saying

Even though stocks rose on a broad front yesterday, the indices had been again stopped short by stubborn resistance that continues to provide a stream of steady sellers. The resistance is at the April high represented by the pattern called a diamond on the S&P 500 chart at 1,181 to 1,220.

As long as the indices continue to push up into the resistance, the bulls remain in charge. And the longer they can eat into the seemingly endless sell orders, the better the chances that a meaningful breakout can occur.?

The main catalyst for the rally has been the stubborn decline within the dollar. And again yesterday, it was the decline inside the dollar that sent stocks greater. But the greenback is approaching a position of being extremely oversold, and the reversal in mid-October is still holding, forming what could be a double-bottom.?

Gold is also a part of the equation, and the minor correction in October matches the double-bottom on the dollar’s chart, making for a formidable combination of resistance to gains in equities. However, gold is in a powerful bull marketplace, and following this minor consolidation will more than likely resume its march greater.

In addition to the election, Federal Reserve action and Q3 earnings, there are a lot of moving parts to the stock market’s engine. And when the fundamental outlook for many of the parts is so uncertain, stock buyers are usually hesitant to take a major bullish commitment.

Today’s Trading Landscape

Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Aetna, Agrium, Alexandria RE, Alpha Natural Resources, Alvarion, Ameristar Casinos, AOL, Arkansas Very best, Capital Lease Funding, Centurytel, Cimarex, Clayton Williams, Clean Harbors, CommonWealth REIT, Consolidated Graphics, CVS Caremark, Devon Energy, Dixie Group, Dolan, El Paso, El Paso Pipeline Partners, Federal Signal, FelCor Lodging, Garmin, Genesis Energy, L.P., Great Wolf Resorts, Heartland Payment Systems, Hyatt Hotels, Inland Real Estate, James River Coal, Knology, Lincoln Educational Services, Medical Action, MGM Resorts, Molson Coors Brewing, Natural Gas Services, NewStar Economic, O2 Micro, Par Pharmaceutical, Parker Drilling, PennyMac Mortgage, PetroQuest Energy, Pulte Homes, QLT, Qwest, Reliant Energy, RR Donnelley & Sons, Sinclair Broadcast, SkyWest, Spectra Energy, Speedway Motorsports, SPX Corp., Steris, Tidewater, Time Warner, Triple-S Management, TRW Automotive, Warren Resources, WellPoint and Westlake Chemical.

Earnings to be reported soon after the close include: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Amdocs, American Medical, American Water, Atmos Energy, Avis Budget, BioMed Realty, Blackboard, Brightpoint, Catalyst Health Solutions, Celera, Charles River Laboratories, Chesapeake Energy, Churchill Downs, Cincinnati Bell, Concho Resources, Con-Way, Corrections Corp., Covance, DealerTrack, Delek US Holdings, Education Management, Equity One, Essex Property, ExlService, FARO Technologies, Federal Realty Investment Trust, Force Protection, Gartner, Genco Shipping & Trading, General Cable, Gilbraltar Industries, Given Imaging, Global Cash Access, Global Industries, Goodrich Petroleum, Hansen Medical, Haverty Furniture, Health Care REIT, Hill International, Huron Consulting, Insight Enterprises, Integrys Energy, Intrepid Potash, ION Geophysical, J&J Snack Foods, j2 Global, KAR Auction Services, Kenneth Cole, Kimco Realty, Kinross Gold, Kite Realty, Liberty Global, Martin Midstream, MasTec, McCormick & Schmick’s, Measurement Specialties, MercadoLibre, Monolithic Power, Murphy Oil, NABI Biopharmaceuticals, NCI, ON Semiconductor, Onyx Pharmaceuticals, OPNET, Pacer International, Papa John’s, PartnerRe, Penn Virginia, Plains All American Pipeline, Polypore International, ProAssurance, Protective Life, Providence Service Corp., Prudential, Qlik Tech, Qualcomm, Quality Distribution, QuinStreet, Regency Centers, Rock-Tenn, Schweitzer-Mauduit, Sierra Wireless, Silicon Motion, Smith Micro Software, Solera, Standard Parking, Stanley Furniture, TeleTech, Ternium S.A., THQ, Time Warner, Transocean, True Religion, United On the internet, ValueClick, Verisk Analytics, Vital Images, Volcano, WebMD Health, Western Gas Partners, Whole Foods and Yamana Gold.

Economic reports due: Bank Reserve Settlement, MBA purchase applications, Challenger Job-Cut Report, ADP employment report, Treasury refunding announcement, factory orders (the consensus expects 1.8%), ISM non-manufacturing index (the consensus expects 54), EIA petroleum status report, and FOMC meeting announcement (the consensus expects the Fed funds rated to remain at 0% to 0.25%).

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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Breakout Signals Resumed Uptrend

September 25, 2011 under World News

Editor’s Note: Filing in for Sam Collins is Ryan Mallory, founder of the monetary blog SharePlanner.com. Sam will return Monday, Nov. 8.

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC ($9.62), SNDK ($36.59), AMZN ($161.90), JACK ($23.16), GHL ($75.95), NFLX ($165.00)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

Bias: 53% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Monster Employment Index (6 a.m.), jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), productivity and costs (8:30 a.m.), EIA natural gas report (10:30 a.m.)

My Observations and What to Expect

* Futures are up powerful heading into the open.

* Asian and European markets as a whole saw gains within the range of 1%-2%.

* The S&P 500 managed to close a point above the recent highs, allowing for it to break out of consolidation and resume the upward trend.

* The S&P 500 is poised to open above 1,200, which should it maintain this price level, would drastically improve the mood of the bulls.

* Yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes had been ultimately received well by the marketplace, and usually allow for the marketplace to experience two to three days of rallying solely off of the news.

* S&P 500 is all clear to challenge the April highs.

* The bears should focus on breaking and closing below the 10-day moving average as well as the trendline off of the August lows that is in place.

Actions I Will Be Taking

* Took profits in ProShares Ultra S&P500 ETF (NYSE: SSO) during the Fed mayhem. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) was stopped out for a profit.

* Added only one additional position to the portfolio yesterday: Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX).

* Tightened my stop-loss in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). Expect to tighten more throughout the day on the heels of the marketplace strength we are seeing.

* Will likely add one to two new positions to the portfolio today.

* Not hedged going into the open.

* Follow me within the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades, including my day-trades.

The SharePlanner Swing-Trading System is a proven trading strategy that has outpaced all the major indices with an 8-year return of more than 1,010%. This year alone it is up 29%, with 64% of the stock picks being winners. It???s an easy trading system that requires very little effort following you buy the stock and great for those who can???t watch the marketplace all the time! Find out more by visiting SharePlanner.com.

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Brief Pullback Could Create Buying Opportunity

September 23, 2011 under World News

Editor’s Note: Filing in for Sam Collins is Ryan Mallory, founder of the monetary blog SharePlanner.com. Sam will return Monday, Nov. 8.

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC ($9.97), NFLX ($165), MCD ($76.92), QID ($11.92)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

Bias: 6% Long (-10% short considering the leverage in QID)

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): employment situation (8:30 a.m.), pending home sales index (12:30 p.m.), Bernanke speaks (two p.m.), consumer credit (three p.m.)

My Observations and What to Expect

* Futures are showing some weakness prior to the employment number.

* Asian markets are seeing a lot of strength in trading with gains as much as two.8%. European markets are trading with a slight negative bias to them.

* The S&P is clearly in a breakout mode following recently trading out of consolidation from the previous three weeks.

* S&P managed to close well above the 200-week moving average, which has acted as major resistance to the overall marketplace very bullish and promising for its long-term prospects.?

* Yesterday’s rally pushed the marketplace above the April highs, which allows for the marketplace to continue the long-term trend, dating back to March 2009.

* The employment number should play a pivotal role within the today’s marketplace action.??

* Be very careful about piling on new positions at this stage of the rally. The marketplace is overextended and well outside of its Bollinger bands, and makes it more likely we’ll see a healthy pullback or at the very least some consolidation before moving greater. Use any weakness to add new positions to the portfolio.

* The bears’ main aim is to erase at least 50%-60% of yesterdays gains, which would essentially create a bearish piercing candle pattern.

Actions I Will Be Taking

* Took solid profits in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK), Jack within the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK) and Greenhill & Co., Inc. (NYSE: GHL) yesterday.

* Added two new positions at the marketplace close yesterday: McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (NYSE: QID). QID is a short-term trade to take advantage of possible consolidation or a light marketplace pullback.

* Will not hesitate to take profits in QID if the marketplace pulls back 0.7% to 1%.

* I’ll be aggressive in adding new long positions to the portfolio on any marketplace weakness.

* Follow me inside the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades, including my day trades.

The SharePlanner Swing-Trading System is a proven trading strategy that has outpaced all the major indices with an 8-year return of more than 1,010%. This year alone it is up 29%, with 64% of the stock picks being winners. It???s an easy trading system that requires very little effort right after you buy the stock and great for those who can???t watch the marketplace all the time! Find out more by visiting SharePlanner.com.

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3 Major Trends Point Up

September 22, 2011 under World News

Stocks rose modestly on Friday to a two-year high, capping a week in which the broad indices gained in every session. For the week, the Dow was up two.9%, the S&P 500 rose three.6%, the Nasdaq gained two.9%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index gained 4.7%.

The economic stocks of the Dow Industrials led the index on Friday, encouraged by a Federal Reserve decision to allow healthy banks to raise dividends. This is the first time since the monetary crisis began that the Fed has relented on this issue, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) rose two.9% and Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) gained 1.9%.

Non-farm payrolls had been up more than expected in October, but the unemployment rate is holding stubbornly at 9.6%.?

Better-than-expected corporate earnings had been reported by Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX), The Boston Beer Business, Inc. (NYSE: SAM) and Atmel Corporation (NASDAQ: ATML). And better-than-expected revenues had been reported by Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) and Madison Square Garden, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSG).

The greenback rose on the better jobs data with the euro at $1.4039, down from $1.4209. And the benchmark 10-year note fell 0.5% to yield two.538%.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 9 points to 11,444, the S&P 500 gained 5 points, closing at 1,226, and the Nasdaq was up two points to two,579. The NYSE traded 1.two billion shares with advancers more than decliners by 1.4-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 564 million shares with advancers ahead by 1.3-to-1

December crude oil rose 36 cents to $86.85 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) closed at $62.31, up 31 cents to a new two-year high. December gold rose $14.60 to a record $1,397.70 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) gained 0.8 points to a new high at 214.91.

What the Markets Are Saying

Last week, stocks finally broke the impasse that has held the marketplace for more than a year within the tight trading range of S&P 500 1,040 to 1,220. Spurred on by a Republican landslide in Congress, the Fed’s decision to go ahead with quantitative easing (QE2), solid Q3 earnings gains, and a better-than-expected employment report, every major index hit new two-year highs.

Thursday’s breakout, with a sharp spike up on solid marketplace breadth and up volume more than down volume (9-to-1 on the NYSE and 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq) is proof enough that the advance and breakout from the Aug. 27 low is the real deal. Now all three major trends (near, intermediate and long term) are up, and the next upside target for the S&P 500 is the August 2008 high of 1,313. For the Dow, it is 11,933, and the Nasdaq’s next target is the December 2007 high at two,728.

Does that mean that investors should hock the farm and put everything into the stock marketplace? Of course not. Not only does the principle of diversification argue against such a move, but the marketplace is now so technically overbought that prudence demands that we buy into pullbacks rather than chase the crowd. If the new bull marketplace is to emerge, we will have plenty of time to capture significant gains.

The breakout’s rising tide has driven many quality stocks to new highs while lifting a few of the market’s dogs to levels where they may be finally swapped out for cash or better performers.

Commodities are also in powerful uptrend. Our Trade of the Day has recommended precious metals stocks regularly with SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), Gabelli Global Gold, Natural Resources &Income Trust (AMEX: GGN) and Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) as names to continue to buy. But at current prices, silver may even be a better value than gold. Check out our Trade of the Day for a new silver recommendation.

Today’s Trading Landscape

Earnings to be reported before the opening include: AAON, AGA Medical, ATP Oil & Gas, Buckeye Partners, Chindex, Compass Group, Comverge, Dynegy, EMC Insurance Group, Feihe International, Frontier Communications, General Steel, Hospitality Properties, Invesco Mortgage Capital, LMI Aerospace, Louisiana-Pacific, Mediacom Communications, PDC Energy, Quicksilver Resources, Republic Airways, Rosetta Resources, South Jersey Industries, Sysco, TravelCenters of America, Warner Chilcott and XenoPort.

Earnings to be reported following the close include: Accuray, American Equity Investment Life, American Public Education, Anadys Pharmaceuticals, Bidz.com, BPZ Energy, Broadsoft, CardioNet, Chatham Lodging, Clean Energy Fuels, Clear Channel Outdoor, Convergys, Cousins Properties, Danaos, Diodes, DTX, Eagle Bulk Shipping, Emdeon, EnergySolutions, EnerNOC, EV Energy, Economic Engines, Genomic Health, Golden Star Resources, Healthcare Realty, Himax Technologies, Hologic, Kendle, Keynote Systems, LDK Solar, MarkWest Energy, McDermott, Metabolix, Middleby, Mindray Medical, MYR Group, Nationwide Health, Pan American Silver, Priceline.com, Qiagen, Quality Distribution, Rackspace, Safe Bulkers, Salix Pharmaceuticals, Silver Wheaton, Sun Hydraulics, TBS International, TechTarget, THL Credit, UDR, US Auto Parts, Vaalco Energy, Vivus, Warnaco Group and Wonder Auto Technology.

There are no significant economic reports due today.

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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Gold Party Far From Over

September 20, 2011 under World News

On Monday, stocks opened lower following an overnight rise within the U.S. dollar and concerns more than the sovereign debt of the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Most of the day was spent making up for the initial losses, and the marketplace closed modestly lower. It was the first loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in seven sessions.

With a general lack of economic news, the markets had been set up for some profit-taking following Thursday’s breakout and a acquire for the week of two.9%. Earnings seemed to have little to do with the overall direction of the marketplace.

In corporate news, AOL, Inc. (NYSE: AOL) jumped 4.7% following a Wall Street Journal report that the firm was exploring options, one of which was a possible arrangement with Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) rose 9.5% as a result of an announced sale of its distribution business to TPG Inc. for $93 million. General Steel Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: GSI), the Chinese steel business, fell 6.8% following a Q3 earnings shortfall. And McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) said that sales growth in October rose 6.5%, but the stock only gained a penny, while The Boeing Firm (NYSE: BA) announced more delivery delays of its Dreamliner, and the stock fell more than $1.

The commodity complex was powerful regardless of the dollar’s gains, with the CRB Index up 0.5%. And technology stocks had been the only other major sector to show a acquire led by Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), which was up in advance of its earnings report on Wednesday. Financials had been the weakest sector, off 0.8%.

The euro fell 0.8% against the dollar at $1.3923 versus $1.4034 on Friday. The 10-year Treasury note closed at a yield of two.55%, up slightly from Friday.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 37 points at 11,407, the S&P 500 fell three points to 1,223, and the Nasdaq gained a point at two,580. The NYSE traded 908 million shares, while Nasdaq exchanged 489 million shares. On both exchanges, decliners had been ahead by about 1.2-to-1.

Crude oil for December delivery rose 21 cents to $87.06 a barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) gained 19 cents, closing at $62.50. Gold closed above $1,400 an ounce for the first time with the December contract up $5.50 to $1,403.20. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) rose 5.26 points to a new closing high of 220.17.

What the Markets Are Saying

Yesterday, we noted that the massive breakout last week of the major indices gave the following upside targets:

S&P 500 1,313 (August 2008 high)Dow 11,933Nasdaq two,728 (December 2007 high)

Immediate support now reverts to the last resistance lines, so the S&P’s immediate support is at the April 23 closing high of 1,217, and then 1,190, which is midway inside the support zone of 1,174 to 1,210. For the Dow, the first support is at 11,205, and then 11,000 to 11,155. The Nasdaq’s support is quite different because of its powerful performance. Its first support is the bottom of a gap opened on Thursday, which is Wednesday’s high at two,541, and extends down to two,535. Then there is a wider band from two,480 to two,535.

Our internal and sentiment indicators are now extremely overbought, so the marketplace is probably going to pull back before resuming its uptrend.

Mark Arbeter of S&P puts it this way: The stock marketplace blasted off late last week, propelling the major indices to new recovery highs. However, the marketplace is extremely overbought, and, in our view, now is no time to chase prices greater. We believe that the U.S. Dollar Index’s break to new corrective lows last week was a major catalyst for the spike in stock prices, but the dollar has bounced and may be attempting to trace out at least a short-term bottom. The prospect of the long-awaited counter trend rally inside the dollar may finally represent the impetus for a cooling off period for stocks, in our view.

But yesterday’s powerful move on the part of commodities within the face of a greater dollar is a dramatic change in relationship. It tells us that futures and especially precious metals may have embarked on a powerful new leg greater.?

In a Wall Street Journal article titled Gold Arches Ever Greater, Dave Kansas said: Once the major economies, monetary markets and currencies stabilize, gold will find it tough going. And when that time comes, a lot of true believers will get badly burned. But with terms like ‘currency war’ inside the air that time seems some way off yet.

Hang on to your gold stocks since, as Yogi Berra said, It ain’t more than ’til it’s more than.

To?get our new target for gold ETF GLD, see the Trade of the Day.

Today’s Trading Landscape

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here.

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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Very best Stocks and ETFs to Buy Now

September 19, 2011 under World News

Like many sessions more than the past six months, yesterday stocks reacted inversely to the direction of the U.S. dollar. The difference, however, was that instead of the greenback falling and stocks rising, the tables had been turned with the dollar closing sharply greater while stocks fell. It was the third straight acquire for the dollar, and some analysts even proclaimed that a bottom had been established.

Like Tuesday, financials had been hit hard again, off two.2%. Part of the decline in monetary stocks was due to the bankruptcy of Ambac Monetary Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK). Dow members JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), American Express Organization (NYSE: AXP) and Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) all suffered declines.

Precious metals stocks had been powerful early within the day, but gave back a large portion of the gains following the close of the futures markets. However, regardless of profit taking, the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.2% to a new two-year high.

Treasurys had been lower with the 10-year note’s yield rising to two.66% and the 30-year to 4.25%. The dollar rallied late within the day, driving down the euro, yen and sterling. The euro closed at $1.3778, down from $1.3923 on Monday.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 60 points at 11,347, the S&P 500 fell 10 points to 1,213, and the Nasdaq was down 17 points to two,563. The NYSE traded 1.1 billion shares with decliners more than advancers by two.7-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 586 million shares and decliners there had been ahead by two.5-to-1.

Crude oil for December delivery fell 34 cents to $86.72 a barrel due to the reversal of the dollar. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) fell 12 cents to $62.38. December gold fell from its highs, but closed up $6.90 at $1,410.10 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) fell 5.80 points to 214.37.

What the Markets Are Saying

Nothing goes up forever, and yesterday’s profit-taking resulted in an across-the-board pullback. The S&P 500 was the only index to penetrate its first line of support, the closing high of 1,217 made in late April. But like the other indices, the support band just below at 1,174-1,210 is broad and deep enough to include most normal selling.

There has been a powerful focus on the precious metals group, and I featured a silver ETF and a gold ETF in this week’s Trade of the Day section. Both recommendations had been made with the caveat that the sector was extremely overbought. And I said that it was very best to take a half position while waiting for a pullback to take a full position.?

Yesterday’s late reversals resulted in a minus day for many of the precious metals funds. They all reacted to some late profit-taking, but in several cases the selling became frenzied. For the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), this resulted in a 97-cent loss, closing at $26.18, but following a new high at $28.72. If further weakness develops this morning, buyers may want to jump aboard SLV, especially if it gets close to the open gap at just under $25.

Barring a reversal that takes the S&P through its major support at 1,200, we can use this pullback as the buying opportunity that we had hoped for. The favorite groups are still technology and precious metals stocks. But manufacturing and solid dividend-paying blue chips should also be on the list for buyers of quality issues. For one dividend stock to buy, see the Trade of the Day.

Favorite stocks to buy would include:

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) under $133Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) under $49.50iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) under $25PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund (NYSE: DBP) under $48Global X Silver Miners (NYSE: SIL) under $22Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) under $65AmerisourceBergen Corp. (NYSE: ABC) under $30Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) under $47JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) under $6.80Ford Motor Business (NYSE: F) under $15International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) under $140Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT) under $8Direxion Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares ETF (NYSE: EDC) under $38TICC Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: TICC) under $10.50?Triangle Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: TCAP) under $16.50Today’s Trading Landscape

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here.

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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Market Tests Support and Survives

September 17, 2011 under World News

The U.S. dollar was powerful again on Wednesday, for the fourth consecutive day. But stocks closed greater soon after fighting a weak opening, which took the entire session to overcome.

Despite a greater close, the Dow Industrials had been under pressure for the entire session due to another big decline within the Boeing Business (NYSE: BA). Delays have put the delivery of the 787 Dreamliner three years behind schedule, and the news that drew more sellers of the stock was an emergency landing of a test 787 following a report of smoke inside the cabin.

The dollar’s strength was attributed to continuing concerns more than the debt issues of Ireland and Greece. And helping both the greenback and stocks was a report that U.S. workers filing new jobless claims fell by a greater-than-expected 24,000 to 435,000, which is the lowest reading in four months. Additionally, the trade deficit for September was slightly less than expected.

In corporate news, Campbell Soup Organization (NYSE: CPB) fell three.3% soon after a deep cut in its full-year earnings forecast. Ford Motor Firm (NYSE: F) jumped 56 cents soon after General Motors said it earned $2 billion in Q3 on a revenue increase of 20%. And Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) gained on the announcement of a new tablet.?

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes had been lower by 6 basis points, taking the yield to two.66%.?

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10 points to 11,357, the S&P 500 rose 5 points to 1,218, and the Nasdaq gained 16 points at two,579.

The NYSE traded 1.1 billion shares with advancers more than decliners by 1.6-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 594 million shares with advancers ahead by 2-to-1.

Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.09 to $87.89 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NASDAQ: XLE) closed at $63.18, up 80 cents. December gold fell $10.80 to $1,399.30 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) rose 5.23 points to 219.60.

What the Markets Are Saying

Stocks recovered from early morning losses and closed with a plus for the day. But the significance of the reversal is that all indices had successfully tested the support zones and survived.

Sentiment numbers rose to the highest levels since April. The Investor Intelligence (II) Advisors Survey showed bullish advisors at about 4% less than April, but 7% more than last week’s number. The Association of Individual Investors (AAII) numbers will come out late today, and I’ll report those numbers in tomorrow’s Daily Marketplace Outlook.

Despite the high levels of uncertainty concerning the European debt problem, the upcoming G-20 meeting, and Chinese currency threats, investors seem relatively unperturbed by it all and are confident of rising stock prices. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 0.63 yesterday to 18.47, which is one of the lowest readings of the year.

Silver was hit hard late on Tuesday, and was lower again yesterday following new margin requirements by the Comex. The money needed to maintain a contract of the metal was increased to $6,500 from $5,000, effective on Wednesday. This created a storm of liquidations since the hike came just as investors had been rolling expiring contracts to the March delivery, so some decided to hold the cash rather than reinvest, according to the Wall Street Journal. The new requirements should not interrupt the long-term trend of silver, and the pullback in ETFs was partially overcome yesterday, with many recovering about half of Tuesday’s losses.

Stay focused on yesterday’s buy list since the trend is still pointed up. TICC Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: TICC) hit our buy under price of $10.50 yesterday before reversing and closing at $10.97. Buy it now.

For another stock to buy now, see the Trade of the Day.

Today’s Trading Landscape

All bond markets are closed to observe Veterans’ Day.

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here.

To see what economic reports are due out this week, click here.

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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Sentiment Numbers Cause for Concern

September 16, 2011 under World News

Stocks took a hard hit on the opening yesterday, following better earnings, but a disappointing outlook from the technology bellwether Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and a powerful U.S. dollar. And even though the broad marketplace recovered about half of the losses before the close, technology stocks had been down for the entire session.

The dollar has now advanced for five straight sessions as investors still flock to it in times of crisis. And the crisis this week is not a new one, but a return to the problem countries collectively known as the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain). The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the latest worry came about as the costs to insure against default on the debt of Portugal, Ireland and Spain hit record highs.

Energy, precious metals and materials stocks rose yesterday, while financials, technology and telecom stocks did poorly. The Dow’s decline was focused primarily on three of its members: The Boeing Firm (NYSE: BA), Hewlett-Packard Organization (NYSE: HPQ) and Cisco. CSCO fell 16.4%, BA was off two.6%, and HPQ lost two.4%. And just before the close, another Dow member, The Walt Disney Business (NYSE: DIS), missed its earnings forecast and was down 1.2%.

In corporate news, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) cut investment ratings on Jabil Circuit, Inc. (NYSE: JBL), off 4.6%, and Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX), down 1.3%. Viacom, Inc.’s (NYSE: VIA) earnings and revenues beat forecasts, and the stock rose three.1%.

The euro fell to $1.366, down from $1.3787.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 74 points to 11,283, the S&P 500 was off 5 points at 1,214, and the Nasdaq lost 23 points at two,556. The NYSE traded 952 million shares, and the Nasdaq exchanged 689 million shares. On both exchanges decliners led advancers by almost 2-to-1.

Crude oil for December delivery was unchanged at $87.81 a barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) closed at $63.88, up 69 cents. December gold rose $4 to $1,403.30 an ounce, while the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU) gained two.43 points to 222.03.

What the Markets Are Saying

The AAII Sentiment numbers had been released today and showed a huge bullish jump of 9.3% to 57.6%. This is the highest bullish sentiment number since January 2007. And with Wednesday’s Investor Intelligence (II) Advisors Sentiment Survey at the highest levels since April of this year, and stocks at annual highs, it is time to go on the defensive for the short term.

Even though the sentiment numbers and our own internal indicators are very overbought, the charts of the major indices are still powerful. Yesterday’s late rally pulled the intraday lows out of the zones identified as immediate support. Nevertheless, sentiment readings like those from AAII and II are clear warnings that something more serious may be coming.

By now our readers should have disposed of their non-performers and taken big profits in stocks bought earlier within the year. And both long-termers and intermediate buyers should hold cash as we wait for a better buying opportunity. Traders may want to take a position in aggressive bearish strategies, especially if we get a rebound today. But don’t enter anything at the marketplace; wait for a rally to a resistance line before jumping on board any shorts.

Our precious metals positions that we’ve covered throughout the year are doing well and even advanced within the face of a stronger dollar yesterday. But this too is a very volatile group, and if you are thinking of buying at this level, wait for a pullback rather than chasing these stocks to new highs.

All things come to those who wait, and now is the time to wait.

For one stock you won’t have to wait much longer to buy, see the Trade of the Day.

Today’s Trading Landscape

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here.

To see what economic reports are due out this week, click here.

If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net.

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